The dominoes in Johor


– Liew Chin Tong
The Malaysian Insider/Rocket
Jan 31, 2013

JAN 31 – Johor is the last bastion of Barisan Nasional but the coming general election may prove that the fortress may turn out to be merely a sand castle. If Pakatan Rakyat gets the support of 35 per cent Malay, 80 per cent Chinese and 50 per cent Indian voters in Johor, 20 parliamentary seats will fall like dominoes. Hence, Pakatan may gain the much-needed 112-seat threshold to form the next federal government with just seats from Peninsula Malaysia.

In the two rounds of seat re-delineation exercises in 1994 and 2003, many multi-ethnic mixed seats were created for Barisan Nasional to maximise its multi-ethnic appeal and to make the most out of the opposition’s inability to win across ethnic boundaries.

PAS was made to be seen by the Barisan-controlled media to non-Malays as an anathema to their interests while DAP as a threat to the Malays. Before 2008, PAS supporters rarely vote for DAP and vice versa.

The 2008 general election saw PAS benefiting from outpouring Chinese and Indian support for the “anything but UMNO” call while some urban Malays voted for DAP for the first time in their lives. Many multi-ethnic seats in the states north of Negeri Sembilan on the west coast of the Peninsula fell to the opposition.

How Pakatan can actually win Johor

Sabah and Johor are the two most crucial battlefields in the 2013 election. While Sabah attracts substantial attention, it could be hampered by seat negotiation and cooperation among various opposition groups. Johor is where Barisan Nasional may fall like dominoes.

Of Johor’s 26 parliamentary seats, only 8 have more than 60 per cent Malay votes which are harder to win with the current level of support for Pakatan Rakyat. No seat in Johor has more than 60 per cent Chinese voters.

On the one hand, without 25 per cent Malay support, even if non-Malay swing to Pakatan Rakyat is huge, the entire momentum may just fizzle out with a very few seats gained. Pakatan Rakyat received only about 20 per cent Malay support in Johor during the 2008 general election.

On the other hand, if 35 per cent Malay voters support Pakatan in this election, anything could happen. While it is tough to get 35 per cent Malay support, it is never impossible.

I was informed that a recent opinion poll shows that Malay support for Pakatan in Johor has exceeded 30 per cent though the support varies among parties – PAS’ support is much higher than average while DAP’s Malay support is lower than average.

The poll also shows that support from the Chinese for Pakatan is around 70 per cent though varies among parties with DAP exceeding the average while PAS lower than average. The poll shows the support from among Indians is constant at about 50 per cent.

Working together is key to victory

As the election approaches, I believe the gaps will narrow if PAS and DAP, with the help of PKR, manage to convince supporters to vote for each other in the context of coalition.

From purely mathematic simulations, here are the possible scenarios in Johor (assuming Indian support for Pakatan is constant):

Malay support at 25%, Chinese support at 65%, Pakatan will win just 1 parliamentary seat in Johor;

Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 70%, Pakatan will win 6 seats;

Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 12 seats;

Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 16 seats;

Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 80%, Pakatan will win 20 seats.

Of course these are just simulations on paper. But it shows that Barisan Nasional’s castle may crumble if a perfect storm comes into shape. It is also a fresh tsunami alert from the people of Johor to the government who refuses to reform. – The Rocket

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  1. #1 by yhsiew on Thursday, 31 January 2013 - 6:32 pm

    Hopefully the recent “Singapore Spring” will spread its influence to Johor – Johoreans see Johoreans do!

  2. #2 by rjbeee on Thursday, 31 January 2013 - 8:16 pm

    First those getting big contracts must go….

  3. #3 by the reds on Thursday, 31 January 2013 - 8:41 pm

    Wake up Johoreans! It is time to move on! We all want to be part of this historic moment – change in government!

  4. #4 by rjbeee on Thursday, 31 January 2013 - 10:07 pm

    Mamak kutty is peeing now. He is worried he will be arrested if Pakatan comes to poor..
    Traitors should be treated like one… Your end is near …Space has being reaidied for you,,,

  5. #5 by ENDANGERED HORNBILL on Thursday, 31 January 2013 - 10:21 pm

    Mahathir can return as President of UMNO after GE 13 if he likes when BN falls. Najib will be sent to pasture to tend to Roses. Mahathir will be the new opposition leader.

    Then Malaysia celebrates and the people will be truly ONE country.

  6. #6 by cintanegara on Thursday, 31 January 2013 - 11:22 pm

    The majority race in Johor are very smart…they know exactly what happened to their ‘relatives’ in another country not far from there……LGE was born in JB however, he has no place in the heart of the majority in that state. He is priceless in Johor and thrown to Penang.

    Let’s recap the incident in Tenang few years ago. Kindly name the person that was chased out from the Felda? Such an embarrassing moment….now talk big want to capture Johor…hahaha ….laughing stock….cannot tahan la…

    On the serious note…..pls dont count the chicken before it hatches la….

  7. #7 by sheriff singh on Thursday, 31 January 2013 - 11:34 pm

    Hmmmm.

    Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 75%, Instant Citizens at 10%, Pakatan will win 0 seats.

    If the dominoes fall in Johor, will everything end up in Singapore?

  8. #8 by Noble House on Friday, 1 February 2013 - 1:19 am

    If the notion of the Domino Theory is a prelude to what that is taking place then the resulting political event across the causeway will tend to have a cumulative effect on our shores. The Arab Spring was a good example. The Rahman Prophecy is coming to an end.

  9. #9 by Sallang on Friday, 1 February 2013 - 8:14 am

    I agree with sheriff singh, on the Instant Citizens which Liew CT did not take into account.
    Now that you have opened up their eyes, they still have 70 days to process, on 3 shifts.
    The Johore shoreline between Kukup and Batu Pahat, has always been a hotbed for illegals to land in the cover of night.
    Liew CT, this article should be confined to the Operations table of Pakatan for analytical actions.

    “If Pakatan Rakyat gets the support of 35 per cent Malay, 80 per cent Chinese and 50 per cent Indian voters in Johor, 20 ”

    The “IF” is still not too assuring.
    How sure are you that supporters know what they are doing?
    Are they just following their a leader, just like a herd of ‘Kambing’? These are made up of the younger generations. One Hoh! All will Hoh!Hoh! Hoh!
    The middle ages made up how many percent? These are working class, who have to bring food to the table for their families. What goes thru’ their mind? Should they vote for change, will their livelihood be changed for the better?Who can promise them that? These are the serious thinkers.
    Pakatan grassroots need to better explain to this groups.
    Then the elders in the rural areas. If you give them a fish, they will eat for a day.If you teach them how to fish, they will buy fishing gear and go fishing on the election day.
    Eh! Are we OK?

  10. #10 by Bigjoe on Friday, 1 February 2013 - 8:50 am

    Now people see why they created these ‘hate’ issues such as ‘Allah’ in Bible and Christian states, etc. when there were never such issues and does not exist in other Muslims countries.

  11. #11 by Bigjoe on Friday, 1 February 2013 - 9:48 am

    Malaysian in Singapore are so special they have to have special rules to vote compare do being in any other countries – Anyone still think the Selangor electoral roll is not like Sabah?

  12. #12 by tuahpekkong on Friday, 1 February 2013 - 11:49 am

    Cintanegara, the majority race will still be in control of politics in Johor. The post of MB and most of the state excos will still be held by the majority race. In short, the status quo is basically maintained. Of course there is no more cronyism, nepotism and the siphoning off of public funds into secret Swiss bank accounts. I think the poor from the majority race will have more to gain as they will have a bigger share of the state’s resources.

  13. #13 by waterfrontcoolie on Saturday, 2 February 2013 - 6:11 am

    cintanegara indeed LGE is ‘priceless’ hence the intelligent people of Peneng brabbed him to lead to save over rm$2 BILLION within less than ONE TERM of office. Likewise, the intelligent peoiple in Selangor took in the ‘priceless’ Khalid to do the same thing! Johoreans were being sentimental in supporting BN over the years, as they began to find out that all their resources are being siphoned to to UMNO cronies, they are awaken! Just wait for the 13th GE result! They are wide awaken now by the look of their attendance at PR rallies. IF BN is so confident why stoop to insult youselves by doing all those silly things at Anwar’s rallies?? This is not the behaviour of a confident party!

  14. #14 by ENDANGERED HORNBILL on Saturday, 2 February 2013 - 11:39 am

    EC, why have an elections if there are so many phantoms.

    Why don’t the EC just announce the undisputed winner now that numbers are stacked so heavily and there are so many “”automatic”"registrations?

    Hello, EC…. I am waiting for Mat Sabu to deal with you traitors and the brains behind Project IC and Project M.

  15. #15 by john on Saturday, 2 February 2013 - 4:37 pm

    As EC is a subsidiary of UMNO/bn , they would have full access (and EC analyses) of electorates statistics. Besides, those illegals with Mykard infiltrations, on standby, army/police votes on hand, and their other arsenals on hand.
    PK simply has to do the ground works thoroughly !
    Constituent by costituent,,,,,,, PK (gel as A TEAM ) has to plan, strategise,,,
    IF THERE IS A WILL, THERE IS A WAY !
    GOD HELP THOSE WHO HELP THEMSELVES !
    Dominoes effect has to be activated first !

  16. #16 by raven77 on Wednesday, 3 April 2013 - 6:52 pm

    Has anyone actually seen UMNO working hard to win. In fact Najib is on a cycling drive in detached Putrajaya. On the other hand PR has been working so hard drspite the lack of resources. No one is going to vote like a kambing anymore as most kambings today have a smartphone and therefore information in their palms. UMNO Baru is in very serious trouble.

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