89-Day Countdown to 13GE – Will Johore MB Ghani Othman be asked to retract his prediction that PR can win the 13GE with 5% to 10% majority or majority of 12-22 seats?


Last evening, Bank Islam Malaysia distanced itself from its chief economist’s prediction in a Singapore forum that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) can notch a slim win in the 13th General Election.

Bank Islam managing director Datuk Seri Zukri Samat said in statement that the bank was not a party to the Singapore Regional Outlook Forum on Thursday , and “not related or involved in anyway in the event” and that the views expressed by its chief economist Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin were “entirely his personal view and should not be linked or attributed to Bank Islam whatsoever”.

At the Singapore regional forum, Azrul had computed that Barisan Nasional was likely to win only between 97 and 107 of the 222 parliamentary seats – yielding for a Pakatan Rakyat federal government a parliamentary majority ranging from eight to 28 seats.

Never mind whether Azrul’s projection is an official or unofficial estimate of Bank Islam, the fact is that this is a projection which UMNO/Barisan Nasional leaders have also arrived at based on their own feedbacks, calculations and computations – indication that the 13GE is going to be a very close affair as to whether it is Pakatan Rakyat or Barisan Nasional which is going to win the race to Putrajaya.

The Johore Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Osman gave almost the same scenario as Azrul when he spoke to Kulai Chinese organisations on Tuesday, conceding that Pakatan Rakyat could win Putrajaya in the 13GE, although he warned that the most the Pakatan Rakyat could win would be a slim majority of 5% to 10% of the parliamentary seats.

Pakatan Rakyat winning a slim 5% to 10% parliamentary majority would range from PR winning 117 seats to BN’s 105 seats with a 12-seat majority (i.e. 5.5% majority) to PR winning 122 seats to BN’s 100 seats with a majority of 22 seats (i.e. 10% majority).

Ghani’s estimate that PR can win in the 13GE with a majority ranging from 12 – 22 parliamentary seats is very close to Azrul’s estimate that PR can win with a majority from 8 to 28 seats.

Will the Johore MB Ghani Othman be asked to retract his prediction that PR can win the 13GE with 5% to 10% majority or majority of 12-22 seats?

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  1. #1 by lee tai king (previously dagen) on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 10:03 am

    The time is right for BN ppl to abandon ship. Do it right now.

  2. #2 by lee tai king (previously dagen) on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 10:06 am

    BTW, it is now 10am. Things look alright enough in the city centre. No jam. No blocks. Getting crowded with ppl.

  3. #3 by yhsiew on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 10:13 am

    I see no reason why the Johore MB Ghani Othman be asked to retract his prediction after all everybody in Umno or outside Umno has the freedom to express his thought as long as he does not use his speech to slander or defame people.

  4. #4 by john on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 10:38 am

    Rather, ‘win’ (to keep up tempo, momentun) the battle and WIN the war.

  5. #5 by boh-liao on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 10:45 am

    PR, don’t gloat n don’t count your chickens b4 they r hatched
    If PR eventually wins at all, most likely PR wins by a very slim margin, then dat’s not d end of excitement
    UmnoB/BN will certainly BUY some of d elected PR MPs 2 cross over (a few million RM will certainly entice some PR MPs 2 hop, step n jump; they will sell their mothers too)
    Lots of drama, akan datang – unless PR wins by a HUGE margin, can 1 meh?

  6. #6 by john on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 11:38 am

    Is a ‘life-death’ situation for them now.
    Even lost they’ll attempt eg. like Perak coup de’tat and bring all the ‘government’ (judiciary,security, the ‘above-politics’, etc.) machinery to the fore. Because only then the ‘PM’ can do a Bodowi act – leverage for safe exist, Mooodin in cahoot with Mad’tir (he got the monies, filthy rich RM135B ? more ? ) take control and later Mad’tir, sons & families M’sia Inc. – “Mad’tir can keep on dreaming on this”.
    PR has to tackle this ‘later’ besides to WIN, must by majority first . MUST HAVE FAITH, RIGHT ? ABU !

  7. #7 by Winston on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 12:22 pm

    I would predict a landslide win for PR.
    It’s a distinct possibility, even with the
    vast machinery of the Federal
    Government going against them.
    The fact is that after decades of corruption,
    scams and scandals, they are doing
    something that is thoroughly unforgivable!
    And that is they are using a vital
    necessity of life to blackmail and coerce
    the Selangor government to accede
    the state to them!!!!
    Water!!!!!!
    If any straw could break the back of the
    camel, this should be it!
    Malaysians are completely incensed by
    their never ending malfeasance, even
    at this late stage of the coming GE!

  8. #8 by john on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 12:30 pm

    ….correction…
    ” Mad’tir can keep on having NIGHTMARE or wet, sendiri shiok dreams on this ”
    ya, have to say adieu….. to ABU event now.

  9. #9 by lee tai king (previously dagen) on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 1:07 pm

    The response to this last rally will be vital. If the crowd is overwhelming in number then i suspect the rally could trigger a meltdown of umno. And more of ppl like the ex-igp and the carpetman would show up.

  10. #10 by ENDANGERED HORNBILL on Saturday, 12 January 2013 - 9:50 pm

    Kudos to Ghani, Johore MB.

    Kudos to BIMB Azrul.

    Speak the truth and damn the devil
    (or devils=UMNO).

  11. #11 by chengho on Sunday, 13 January 2013 - 6:10 am

    syiok

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