Malaysia BN will keep Sarawak by a hair’s breadth, say analysts


The Malaysian Insider
Apr 16, 2011

KUCHING, April 16 — The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) will retain Sarawak today but will end the race with Pakatan Rakyat (PR) dangerously close at its heels, say analysts.

Their polls projections, which were cautious at first, have now grown significantly optimistic for the opposition force, which is contesting in its first-ever state election under the PR umbrella.

Three analysts told The Malaysian Insider yesterday that BN was likely en route to yet another electoral victory in the hornbill state but the contest for two-thirds majority was too close to call.

Such a prediction would have been laughed off at campaign kick-off last week but consistent reports of massive rally turnouts and talk of rising anger against the state’s powerful Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud have now drawn a question mark over BN’s ability to maintain its near-dominance in the 71-seat state assembly.

When at first even PR leaders admitted their goals would be impossible to achieve, the final day of campaigning yesterday saw Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim declaring that the newborn alliance would far surpass its targets.

“We are very confident we are going to go far beyond that, we are pushing to deny BN its monopoly of the state,” he said during a press conference yesterday afternoon.

According to sources, PR is now betting largely on victory in 34 state seats, with DAP winning in 13 of the 15 seats it is contesting, followed by PKR’s 19 of 49 seats and PAS’s two of five state seats.

PR needs to win in at least 24 state seats to deny BN its customary two-thirds majority, and 36 seats to form a new government in Sarawak.

The pact’s wins are expected to come largely from the urban and semi-urban state seats, particularly in constituencies within the main townships and city and their outskirts.

Analysts were similarly as optimistic over PR’s chances, pointing out that the usually conservative political culture in Sarawak had changed significantly in the past week.

Voters, they said, were now not only more politically aware but were also willing to unreservedly declare their grouses with the ruling administration, an uncharacteristic trait in the past.

Tonight’s outcome, said the analysts, would bank on how successful BN’s use of its entire state and federal government machinery has been in convincing voters to stick to the ruling pact.

When polling opens at 1,749 centres across the state this morning, 979,796 voters will face the crucial decision of whether to “vote for change” or vote for “transformation”, the two messages spread by PR and BN over the 10-day campaign period.

Universiti Malaysia Sarawak lecturer Dr Faisal Syam Hazis, who has been criss-crossing Sarawak to observe the heated campaign, said that over the past 10 days voters across all different communities had shared one major grouse — their disenchantment with Taib or “Pek Moh”.

“The message is very clear. People are echoing the call for change and I can see this even in the Dayak areas.

“Many are really disappointed with the BN… you can sense that sentiment. Promises were made to them to provide water and roads, to give them employment opportunities, but they were only made during elections,” he said.

Faisal said PR’s performance would bank heavily on the protest vote — constituents who were upset with BN but who did not necessarily subscribe to the opposition’s policies.

But the professor said this would not bear any similarity to the protest vote in the tsunami of 2008 as Sarawak’s voter dynamics and political situation were significantly different from those of states in the peninsula.

“The issues are different here so let me put it like this — I think the opposition will win more seats and could deny two-thirds but it is too close to call,” he said.

Faisal also noted that another major factor was the possibility of vote-rigging and election irregularities, which the opposition has predicted would likely occur today.

The pact has already complained of cash handouts allegedly given by BN agents to voters, ranging between RM100 for each voter and up to RM2,000. Villages in the interior areas, they claimed, were even given RM6,000 allocations.

“And look, PR is not only up against BN’s already massive election machinery, it is also up against the entire federal and state government machinery.

“You can observe how this has been constantly used in rural areas; Kemas, the Education Department, the police, all government departments and the deployment of the entire federal and state Cabinet ministers to help in the polls,” he said.

Faisal described this as the “politics of Panadol”, noting that this would likely cost PR many seats.

“This is when although people are unhappy, these instant-noodle projects and handouts will convince them to vote for BN but after the polls, the suffering continues,” he said.

He claimed that if PR and BN had entered the contest on a level-playing field, it was without a doubt that PR could deny BN its two-thirds majority and even have a fighting chance to win the state.

Universiti Putra Malaysia lecturer Professor Jayum Anak Jawan was less optimistic of PR’s chances but agreed with his fellow academic that the pact would perform significantly better than it had in 2006.

In the 2006 polls, the DAP won in only six seats and PKR in one.

Jayum admitted that the opposition force had put up a fierce fight in the polls and had made inroads in many areas, particularly among the urban and semi-urban communities.

“I see quite a lot of people who are excited about the polls, especially around the major towns like in Kuching, Sibu and Miri.

“But the Bidayuh seats and the Malay/Melanaus, are not so easy… although many areas are said to be volatile as their BN candidates are new faces,” he said.

But Jayum predicted that this would not translate into a resounding victory for PR and tonight’s results would bring no surprises.

He explained that many of the local communities like the Malay/Melanau, the Ibans and Bidayuhs were a sentimental and loyal lot and had an emotional attachment to their representatives in government.

“They may be unhappy and complain that their land had been stolen but at crunch time, they will vote for BN. Don’t ask me why, it is baffling to me too,” he said.

Jayum said more was needed to “shake” the Dayaks out from political complacency as they were not likely to “jump ship”.

“On that basis, I am not confident that they will abandon the ruling coalition completely,” he said.

Universiti Teknologi Mara Associate Professor Shaharudin Badaruddin agreed with his comrades, saying that this was by far the most heated state contest he had ever witnessed.

He explained that in the previous two state polls in 2001 and 2006, voters had generally stayed in the comfort of their homes and went about their daily businesses instead of joining in the campaign festivities by attending political events.

The professor expressed awe at the vast changes, describing it as a “strong undercurrent” sweeping the state.

“It is quite remarkable to see how accepting these people are… I have seen lorries driven by Chinese displaying PAS flags.

“I tried snapping pictures of PKR flags on display once and a Bidayuh woman scolded me, warning me against defacing the flags.

“And this is in the rural areas. There is also a protest even from the Malay community… so easily, they can get more than 19 seats, or perhaps, deny BN two-thirds,” he said.

Polling begins at 8am today and ends at 5pm.

The Election Commission expects the final vote tally to be announced by 11pm.

There are 979,796 registered voters in Sarawak, with the Chinese making up the largest community at 31.5 per cent, the Ibans 29 per cent, Malay/Melanaus at 27.5 per cent, Bidayuhs eight per cent, Orang Ulus 3.7 per cent and others 0.26 per cent.

  1. #1 by yhsiew on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 11:57 am

    Do not count your chickens before they are hatched.

  2. #2 by dagen on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 12:28 pm

    In politics of war counting chickens do help to boost excitement and sentiment; and may be necessary.

  3. #3 by somethingStirring on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 12:30 pm

    “He claimed that if PR and BN had entered the contest on a level-playing field, it was without a doubt that PR could deny BN its two-thirds majority and even have a fighting chance to win the state.”-This is why BN is such hypocrites

  4. #4 by boh-liao on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 12:42 pm

    Sure lah, cos fr reports, so many blatant blardy frauds going on 2 ensure BN victory

  5. #5 by on cheng on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 12:53 pm

    If Sabahan n Sarawakian had vote wisely much earlier or had enough determination to be independent, Sabah n Sarawak could be as rich as Brunei today or be 2 richest states in Malaysia !!
    Maybe the Dayak (interior area) can wake up only after (if ever) their cousins in Kalimantan Barat (or Kal. Timur) or Kal.Tengah) had a higher living standard

  6. #6 by Bigjoe on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 12:55 pm

    Did Sdr. Lim actually re-posted this? I have a lot of respect for Sdr. Lim instinct about the outcome. He is usually quite precise – he does not indulge in over-prediction.

    If this is true, then PR and DAP in particular deserve absolute respect from not only Malaysians but all democracy and freedom loving people everywhere. Anyone who tries to minimise this achievement just small-minded.

    This result, if true, means Putrajaya is within grasp. Taib will step down and Najib will say he has fufilled his promise to Sarawakian and woo the voters directly. Its will be a big mistake. PR can charge that UMNO is taking over Sarawak and remind voters of Sabah’s terrible fate and it will keep momentum going against BN.

    This will be momentus, its NOT just a small victory, its a breakthrough milestone, a key moment in Malaysia history. Its equivalent to an upstart boxer knocking down a giant for the first time. The giant may still step up but people will sense the giant can be taken down and cheer for the upstart.

  7. #7 by Winston on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 12:59 pm

    Uncle Lim, come what may, the push must go on until PR is firmly ensconced in Putrajaya.
    There is absolutely no alternative to it.
    Do a detailed study of the election tactics of the BN and start working out measures to
    counter them.
    Give them a “Dien Bien Phu” in the next GE.
    The ground work must be laid now!!

  8. #8 by sheriff singh on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 1:12 pm

    One forecast says it will be BN 30 PR 41 thereabouts.

    PR takes over. Far fetched? Lets wait and see.

  9. #9 by k1980 on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 1:26 pm

    //One forecast says it will be BN 30 PR 41 thereabouts.//

    Money from Bn will entice 12 to cross-over from PR. Then BN41, PR29.

  10. #10 by sotong on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 1:40 pm

    Big guns from both sides in the state….for once we have lions leading the fight instead of donkeys.

  11. #11 by boh-liao on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 1:54 pm

    We hope 2nite there is NO hopping n buying of elected PR ADUN, enriching themselves
    Many polling stations closed, counting will start later; meanwhile with so many hours in between ANY possibilty of tempering of ballot papers, esp those with X against PR? Mayb another X added 2 BN 2 invalidate votes 4 PR
    If there is no guarantee of CLEAN election, then it is a fraud democracy n we hv 2 use a different way 2 UBAH, not d ballot boxes

  12. #12 by limkamput on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 2:25 pm

    A narrow majority win by BN is sufficient. One two months after the election, probably half of the PR ADUNs will be crossing over to BN in the nation of unity and Sarawak for Sarawakians – that is my biggest concern.

  13. #13 by dagen on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 2:31 pm

    That’s right limkamput. I hope the win for pakatan would be comprehensive enough so that all crossing over efforts would be rendered pointless.

    Sarawakians hold a magic stone that could kill two birds. One, to down taib and gang in sarawak. Two, to down umno in malaysia.

  14. #14 by undertaker888 on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 3:35 pm

    Please send them umno and BN cohorts home with their tails tucked. Before I die I would surely like to see umno, MCA and mic out of the Malaysian picture. mencuri didahulukan, rasuah diutamakan. Moral-less umno, prostitutes MCA and beggars mic. Bury them, sarawakians. Bury them. .

  15. #15 by k1980 on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 4:09 pm

    Don’t bury them, land very expensive nowadays. Just C4 them, and save a lot on burial fees.

  16. #16 by k1980 on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 4:16 pm

    Keputusan awal: Pakatan – 8, BN – 4
    2:26PM Apr 16

    Antara kerusi yang sedang didahului oleh BN adalah di Tanjung Datu, Sebuyau, Sadong Jaya dan Beting Maro manakala PKR pula di Krian, Ba’kelalan, Kakus, Tamin, Jepak, Tebedu, Tarat dan Meluan.

  17. #17 by raven77 on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 4:44 pm

    You cannot fool all the people all the time….

    If BN is not out this time….they will be next time round……

  18. #18 by boh-liao on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 5:44 pm

    http://anilnetto.com/malaysian-politics/malaysian-elections/live-report-from-sarawak/
    How come DAP getting much lower number of votes compared 2 BN in many unofficial results? Teruknya. While PKR doing better than BN

  19. #19 by yhsiew on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 5:45 pm

    ///PKR cries foul over withholding of tally sheet///

    http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/161696

  20. #20 by boh-liao on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 6:24 pm

    PR really kena thrashed kuat2 in all postal votes (betul BN’s fixed deposit), so sad lah

  21. #21 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 7:02 pm

    “PKR candidate Abang Zulkifli Abang Engkeh conceded defeat in Saribas.
    This is his third try in the electoral campaign and second attempt in Saribas. He was defeated in the last state polls by a tissue-thin 94-vote majority, but this time he lost by a massive margin”.

    “The main factor is money, and the secondary factor is (BN fielding a) new candidate,” Abang Zulkifli Abang Engkeh says, referring to BN’s debutante Muhammad Razi Sitam, who replaced unpopular incumbent Wahbi Junaidi.

    “Last night, many voters called me to ask for money but we don’t practice vote-buying.” he says.

    (Source: Malaysiakini, as at 4.50 pm)

    How does one persuade voters to vote a tsunami for good governance and against corruption when many embrace the corrupt culture and expect to be paid by their votes?

    Herein lies Democrarcy’s contradiction: 1 man 1 vote in which majority will prevail, means if the majority, whether due to culture, illiteracy or poverty, are themselves comfortable with corrupt patronage politics, they will continue to vote for those who have money to throw to them to perpetuate that system of politics to which they are accustomed. They may not want Change.

  22. #22 by tak tahan on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 7:45 pm

    According to MK report:
    7.30pm: On the spot analysis – Pakatan has failed to deny BN two-thirds majority.

    Ar…

  23. #23 by undertaker888 on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 8:11 pm

    Sarawakians love being sodomized by BN. Sad day. Sad country. sad bodoh punya orang.

  24. #24 by raven77 on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 8:23 pm

    Looks like Sarawakians fully deserve their fate………

  25. #25 by Bigjoe on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 8:32 pm

    PKR 8 seats? Impressive if true. A breakthrough.

    20/21 seat to the opposition? Does it translate to moral victory of breaking the myth that UMNO/BN cannot be toppled?

    If PR cannot tell the people with certainty that BN checks are no good during election because it may not be the govt, its at a disadvantage. Unless it can cross that line soon, the road to Putrajaya will still be a far way off…

  26. #26 by limkamput on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 8:48 pm

    This is democracy ala Malaysia where the majorities obtained by DAP are bigger than the total number of voters in many other constituencies. How to win, you tell me. Chinese are grossly under-represented given our contribution to the economy and well being of this country.

  27. #27 by monsterball on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 8:54 pm

    It is not easy to change the mentalities of lowly educated Malaysians who are farmers and fishermen all their lives..listening to radio Tv news…where they are constantly been told half truths and mind control methods applied by BN for decades.
    It is noted almost all urban areas are won by DAP and PKR.
    Extremists still feel the land belongs to Malays and if they do not vote for BN..they are traitors to their race.
    Whatever it is…Sarawakians have spoken.
    They make the bed…they can sleep on it.

  28. #28 by monsterball on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 8:59 pm

    On the good news….DAP did extremely well ad even won seats with Muslim voters support.
    Pas lost all 4 seats contested.
    PKR was largely rejected ..alhough from one seat in the past ….they have captured 4 todate…and more to come.
    In that sense….PR have improved alot compared to 12th GE.

  29. #29 by boh-liao on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 9:28 pm

    A big THANK YOU 2 those brave Sarawakians who rejected BN n voted 4 PR
    SYABAS! U showed d way in spite of all threats, bribes, frauds fr BN
    O yea, Georgie was kicked out, GREAT, n now he can service his young bride full time
    PR must keep d UBAH momentum going n must work harder on rural folks 2 convince them 2 UBAH in d imminent GE
    Next target is more important, 2 get more PR MPs elected 2 kick out BN fr Putrajaya, UBAH

  30. #31 by baochingtian on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 9:41 pm

    First, the constituencies are demarcated to ensure advantage to the ruling party. Then the rural Ibans are well guarded, headmen are appointed to “police” their people so that they hv no contact with outside world. PR who r voted in today must organise SGA (small group activity) for the urban Ibans so that info could reach the Iban group as a whole.

  31. #32 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 9:46 pm

    As expected, the Chinese majority urban constituencies will swing to DAP, which predictably has done well (winning 12 out of 15 seats =80%) but not rest of PR (PAS won 0 out of 5, PKR only 3 out of 48 or 6%. Time for Azmin/Tian Chua to learn that ambition/quantity translates to nothing if no quality/sense of reality).

    Chinese voters – on both sides of South China Sea – will not support the ruling coalition, biscuits, money, development projects, notwithstanding.

  32. #33 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 9:47 pm

    Whatever happened to the touted Taib factor – that he won’t go and would not relent to even PM’s prompting to go?
    I reiterate what I said in earlier thread: the overarching consideration affecting (at least) non Chinese (rural) Sarawakians is regional parochial sentiment to keep & fence out West Malaysians (whether from BN – and especially UMNO or even PR) out of Sarawak.” From this perspective the independence of ‘Pek Moh’ from UMNO president/PM, and by extension from Semenanjung’s political hegemony is PLUS & not Minus point. As a trade off Sarawakian voters might just turn a blind eye to corruption/abuse of power if its their own (even minority Melanau elites) provided they get some of the lollies/largesse during electoral campaigning. Pek Moh has proven he is no liability & could deliver more than 2/3 to BN & therefore is untouchable! PM should be grateful for otherwise a set back in fixed deposit state will provide excuse for UMNO warlords to usher him out, like they did to Pak Lah!

  33. #34 by boh-liao on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 10:12 pm

    D urban voters of S’wak showed their maturity by booting out independents (like Dom Ng, who lost his deposit, bagus), SNAP n SUPP
    Yes, voters had spoken n sent SNAP n SUPP 2 oblivion n irrelevance, matilah like MCA, MIC n Gerakan
    DAP must not just depend on Chinese voters, must endeavor 2 reach out 2 non-Chinese voters in both East n West M’sia
    PR must learn fr this battle in order 2 prepare well 4 d next big war n win it, UBAH

  34. #35 by tak tahan on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 10:29 pm

    Sarawakians must get ready to pierce their noses with bigger n stronger ring to be dragged for another 5 years to come.So sad the majority chose to be in that continuous pathetic state.Where is the common sense gone or vanished?

  35. #36 by HJ Angus on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 10:31 pm

    I think PKR had too lofty ambitions to try and win the elections; they should probably have contested in half the number of seats and focused their campaigns on a limited number of seats.
    PR does not have the resources to compete with the federal government that has almost unlimited resources and also the use of national assets for elections.
    Although PAS lost in all seats, at least they contested in only a few seats.
    This should be a good learning experience for PR to prepare better for the GE.

  36. #37 by boh-liao on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 10:55 pm

    Will there b hopping n buying of elected PR ADUN? Wait n c
    Looks like PBB n PRS rock solid n can’t b defeated, PR nak buat apa?
    Sad but true, rural folks in S’wak still willingly exploited n sodomised by PBB/BN, dai sei1

  37. #38 by yhsiew on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 11:29 pm

    So long as Taib is still on the throne, PR stands a good chance to do well in Sarawak come GE 13th.

  38. #39 by cintanegara on Saturday, 16 April 2011 - 11:46 pm

    Give a big around of applause to our BROTHERS and SISTERS in Sarawak for their WISE and RATIONALE decisions to stand firmed with BARISAN along together with their BELOVED CM, Tan Sri Taib Mahmud…74.6% votes revealed a message to opposition that THE LAND OF HORNBILL favors BARISAN for 10th consecutive terms….WOW ITS IMPRESSIVE….Its a sign of auspicious horoscope that BARISAN will triumph in the GE 13th. Well done Datuk Seri Najib for your ONE MALAYSIA concept. Tun Dr Mahathir your legacy continues…. Our absolute support goes to both of you…

  39. #40 by tak tahan on Sunday, 17 April 2011 - 12:01 am

    PBB/BN had promised those perverts lots of free KY to be acompanied with.Good la..tiu betul betul sama dia orang..kasi lubang gatal tu dan ni sampai pecah roboh.48 years being sodomised and ‘shiok’ ‘puas’ sampai tak tahan so tak tahan dari effect nya..hari hari ‘tak tahan’ or mau dikena kan,betul tak?Lagi lima tahun kena dibelasah dari sadist yang sama..boring kan?Nanti cepat jadi Pek Moh macam dia.Tukar la pasangan yang mulia dan gentle macam PR!Sakit kepala gua la sama you orang!God pun sudah meluat dan give up sama you orang!Isu Tuhan tidak dipertikaikan tapi orang billionaires diangkat pula disanjung tinggi tinggi dan bola dia punya orang diangkat,polish dan dicium cukuply.Ar…Apasai selalu tidur dan tak bagun.You betul betul deserved to reap(sodomy) of what you betul betul sow(pervert seduction).Padan muka la dan tolong tengok muka anak anak dan bini sama ada dia orang patut kah padan muka macam kamu di masa yang akan datang(nightmare) pada dia orang!!God bless you la anyway.

  40. #41 by cemerlang on Sunday, 17 April 2011 - 12:06 am

    Well done because you have won more seats. Nobody is actually shouting and jumping in joy. Both BN and the opposition are just quiet. Sarawakians have yet come to accept the opposition. The Iban Temenggong Jugah was with the Barisan Nasional when Malaysia was formed. So the tie between the Ibans and the BN is pretty strong. In fact going back into history, it was this James Brooke fellow, the Dayaks and the Sultan of Brunei. Next is credibility and trust. Of course, there is the money issue thing because without the money, development will be nil or slow. The Dayaks are thinking of their future. They need the money for their future. It is not the right time for them to think otherwise. May be after the next few years when the Dayaks decide to be independent, then there will be another ruling party. Anyway, it is one small step for man but a giant leap for mankind.

  41. #42 by boh-liao on Sunday, 17 April 2011 - 1:57 am

    Now SNAP n SUPP r irrelevant, period
    Next, 2 make PBB n PRS irrelevant too

  42. #43 by Loh on Sunday, 17 April 2011 - 3:09 pm

    Pek Mioh considers it his just reward as the richest person in Borneo Island for keeping UMNO out of Sarawak. Most Sarawakinas considered it more important to prevent UMNO’s influence in the state than in removing the Pek Moh. That was why Pek Moh won more votes as a result of Najib’s statement promising an end to Pek Moh’ rule. Did Najib factor this in when announcing Pek Moh’s departure.

    Dr George Chan said that the election results show that Chinese ditched BN because of national issues, chiefly because the federal government has not been fair to Chinese. But CSL and KSK have not the balls to say the same thing.

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