The Bagan Pinang by-election is another “no winner” for Barisan Nasional (BN) for the second consecutive day after the MCA Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) yesterday which booted out the two MCA contenders, MCA President Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat and the MCA Deputy President Datuk Seri Dr. Chua Soi Lek.
If the BN candidate Tan Sri Mohd Isa Samad loses in the Bagan Pinang by-election or is returned with a smaller majority than the 2,333-vote won by the previous BN incumbent in the general elections last year, it is a clear defeat for Umno and BN as the by-election will be a mini-political tsunami by itself.
But even if Isa wins the Bagan Pinang by-election with a bigger majority than last year (and Isa is boasting about a 5,000-6,000 majority), it is an even bigger defeat for Umno and Barisan Nasional for it will be a loud, clear and unmistakable message to all Malaysians that Umno and BN are totally irredeemable and incapable of internal change and reform and there is choice or alternative whatsoever for Malaysians in the next general elections to sweep Umno and BN out of power in Putrajaya.
I cannot agree more with Tun Mahathir and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in their public objections to Isa’s candidature.
Mahathir said Umno and BN can win the battle in Bagan Pinang but they will lose the war in the next general elections.
Tengku Razaleigh has been more direct when he said today that it is better if Umno lost today in the Bagan Pinang by-election as Isa’s victory would translate into an endorsement for corruption-as-usual in UMNO and the Barisan Nasional government.
Razaleigh said: “For the good of the party, the dignity of the Malay community it claims to represent and for the sake of the nationwide reform in governance and politics that we must undergo, it would be better if Umno lost today, and used the loss to begin internal reform.
“Corruption is the scourge of the country. Umno is a step away from being identified with that scourge.”
This is why the Bagan Pinang by-election is a“no winner” for Umno/BN as it is a Umno/BN defeat if Isa wins with a smaller majority but an even bigger defeat with a bigger Isa majority!
#1 by limkamput on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 7:56 am
Good guilt again! So what exactly was given back to the voters of Bagan Pinang? If someone have taken a billion and gave back a million and that also in the form of incomplete roads, filthy streets and leaking schools, how were they supposed to benefit the majority of the people in Bagan Pinang? This notion about being corrupted but somehow also managed to favour the majority (on a sustained basis) has no logical foundation. Corruption or patronage in its very nature cannot favour the majority. The people of Bagan Pinang voted for BN because they are ignorant and were influenced by their corrupted leaders to go short term gains – gains that do not match the full value of their votes, gains that are transient and gains that are “short-changed”.
If voters are also taken in by the charming personality of the candidate rather than the substance, that is also an indication that majority of the voters are ignorant and not ready.
#2 by taiking on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 8:09 am
RM100 and a tin of milo. Dats all it takes?Maybe not. Its down to the postal votes again I think. So dont clobber the man on the streets of bagan.
#3 by Bigjoe on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 8:29 am
I believe LKS analysis of the Bagan Pinang election miss the biggest issue. In fact, Najib himself got it right when he hypocritically says he wants to make Malaysia the best country in racial relations.. Deep down he knows the biggest problem with Isa’s election is going to be.. the Indians…
The Indians are going to look at Isa’s election and say look how selfish Bagan Pinang are and they are no where as poorly off as the Indian community as a whole. They don’t care if they bankrupt the country so long as they get what they want. So why should they not be the same in fact even MORE so.. Its one upmanship in self-interest.. going down an extreme path which we know they are more than capable of..
This poses a BIG problem for DAP and PKR in particular – bigger than the headache that BN has. Because simply DAP and PKR is the easiest target for such self-interest. The ones the Indians can get the quickest and most result from.. Its simply a disaster waiting to happen for DAP and PKR if the Indians won’t choose a side firmly unlike urban Chinese and PAS hardcore supporters..
The Indian votes are a disaster waiting to happen to DAP and PKR unless they take actions to divert it to BN..and its possible.. With a divided community, DAP and PKR have already proven they are the Indians best hope for their future.. They need to recruits more Indians leaders – real grassroot leaders that talk Tamil, labour leaders type. those in Temples etc..
#4 by lkt-56 on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:08 am
First of all let us accept the defeat graciously. Then let us be honest about what could have swung the votes against PR. I have read alot of reasons the defeat but somehow none would admit that racism is still deeply entrenched in our mindset.
-UMONO/BN did not win because of 1Malaysia which we all know is, to put it in Kit’s word: HOLLOW.
-UMNO/BN win because it stands for protecting Malay rights. Hence I will not be surprised if the post mortem later shows that Malays support for UMNO has increased in Bagan Pinang.
-My gut feel tells me that the Indian votes have swung to UMNO/BN this time. From reading comments in various blogs it is clear that the Indians felt that DAP does not care about the Kampung Buah Pala folks because they are Indians. It is probably too late, but better late than never; for the Penang government to sincerely explain what went wrong with their promise to help the KBP folks.
-UMNO/BN wins because PAS/PR does not have the confidence/conviction to counter the racist approach of UMNO.
-I would have thought that PAS/PR will counter UMNO/BN communalism ideology by using the spiritual teaching that racism is NOT Islamic. But they did not probably they do not feel confident to engage the people on a platform of true Malaysian brotherhood while allowing each and every race the freedom to practice their own cultural and religious beliefs.
To win the next general election, PR must seriously (and they do not have the luxury of time) get together and work out a common strategy of working together harmoniously in order to convince the people that they deserve their mandate. For a start take a look at how the early Alliance Party managed to work together. I am sure that there were a great deal of sincerity then…
#5 by k1980 on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:09 am
http://www.mmail.com.my/content/15406-two-nabbed-over-circulation-counterfeit-notes-bagan-pinang
Give govt scholarships to students to study in Egypt and this is what you get when they return
#6 by Bigjoe on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:10 am
Bagan :Pinang cannot be extrapolated to other constituency.. Imagine Isa Samad in more than a few constituency and Malaysia would be a bankrupt country.. No the problem is not that Bagan Pinang can be replicated in other constituency. The problem is those who want change quickly will be dissapointed. Najib gets a reprieve within UMNO that they will not agitate for change – a renew confidence that UMNO can hold on to power despite the fact its component parties are in a shambles…
Who are those that want change fastest? The Indians.. that is where the problem is biggest…
#7 by Godfather on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:14 am
Hugos is Undergrad2 in disguise ?
#8 by lkt-56 on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:17 am
To add on to my earlier comment. I think Teresa Kok has done a marvelous job recruiting the Malays into DAP. DAP should also work on strengthening their socialist ideology of taking care of the welfare of the poor people irregardless of race.
#9 by lkt-56 on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:18 am
Godfather: Hugos is Undergrad2 in disguise ?
Cross my mind too ;)
#10 by Godfather on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:24 am
The rural voters are easily swayed by angpows, hampers, sewing machines. A thousand votes at RM50 each cost only RM50,000 and this amount can be easily sponsored by the tycoons that support BN. The sad truth is that PR can’t even afford anything close to this, and even if they can, you can bet your bottom ringgit that the MACC and the EC would be waiting in the wings to swoop on the PR candidate.
The urban-rural divide continues. Similar situation in Thailand and the Philippines. Third world means third world….
#11 by lkt-56 on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:29 am
The rural voters are easily swayed by angpows, hampers, sewing machines. A thousand votes at RM50 each cost only RM50,000 and this amount can be easily sponsored by the tycoons that support BN.
That is all the more reason for them to be helped so that they are not so easily bought.
#12 by PSM on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:59 am
Bro Kit,
It was pretty depressing seeing Isa (& UMNO) bash PAS with a bigger majority!
Unfortunately by winning with a 5,000 to 6,000 majority, it shows that there are Malaysians (in Bagan Pinang anyway) who are ok with corruption (after all, as the PM has said, it’s only a Technical Matter!).
It also shows that UMNO (MIC, MCA, PPP & Gerakan are ALL irrelevant) can still win & that PAS & the PR had better start working closely together & stop washing their dirty linnen in public (e.g, the recent Selangor fiasco).
Let’s hope that the PR gets registered offically & gets down to some serious work.
#13 by pulau_sibu on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 11:30 am
Mahathir suggested Samy to quit, but why he never asked Taib to quit? Be fair to Taib, please. The old person need to retire after becoming the chief minister for so many years.
#14 by OrangRojak on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 11:52 am
PR can’t even afford anything close to this
Yes they can. They can promise the moon and stars to be delivered once in power. If they were in control of the Federal budget they could beat the offers of Milo a thousand-fold. If they don’t control the Federal budget (because they don’t win the GE), the cost is zero.
If money is the determinant of Malaysian electoral success, you have to give the voters money, or lose. Promising a criterion-free allowance is cost and risk free. You don’t even have to pay for an assessment / delivery bureaucracy! It also goes some ways to credibly replacing the worst parts of the NEP, not to mention having an impact on Malaysia’s shameful wealth distribution indices.
BN cannot match this offer. The last thing they want is a confident, empowered, independent electorate.
#15 by Onlooker Politics on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 12:03 pm
It seemed that the landslide win of Tan Sri Isa at Bagan Pinang by-election had sent a clear-cut message to the public of Malaysia. The election result conveyed a message that the rural people of Malaysia would tolerate the corruption practices of Umno leaders so long as the people were given a token share of the gain from the corruption practices.
It seems that Pakatan Rakyat is going to face a much tougher challenge in the future in the course of the venture endeavour for taking over the power to form Federal Government from Barisan Nasional by the next General Election. Although the issue of injustice in relation to the bomb blast of Altantuya’s corpse should not be easily ignored by us, I simply did not think that such an issue of isolated case would be the panacea for Pakatan Rakyat to attract much more support from the voters in the future.
Pakatan Rakyat would still need to prove its administrative capability to the people in terms of the administration of the state government, such as in Penang, in Selangor, in Kelantan, and also in Kedah. No doubt it is a common knowledge that the state government usually does not have adequate financial capability to raise adequate fund for the state government to spend in economic development, mainly due to the constitutional restriction imposed on the State Government in relation to the power of imposing tax on the income earners. However, “no money” can never be a permanent excuse for not initiating and implementing some kinds of economic plans or projects in order to spur the economic activities within the state under the control of Pakatan Rakyat.
If the states under the control of Barisan Nasional can keep entice domestic travellers and tourists to do a cross-state visit, I believe Pakatan Rakyat state government can also do so for spurring the economy.
#16 by boh-liao on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 12:13 pm
Money used in money politics is sup sup sway
Umno n BN have all the ways to fill their war chest with $$ fr the rakyat
Just have a few special draws (big, small kind)
NonMuslims, Muslims, PR n BN supporters
All gladly contribute $$$$ to their war chest lah
Sorry, PR no control of special draws, drool lah
#17 by OrangRojak on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 12:23 pm
spurring the economy
What can they do for tourists Onlooker Politics? Most wealthy tourists come to South East Asia looking for total-freedom beach holidays, or hedonism, or culture and ancient monuments, or gruesome distractions which are illegal in their home countries. Malaysia cannot compete on any of these?
If the State governments are not financially strangled, then they are also culturally strangled and – let’s be honest here – what exactly does Malaysia offer to tourists that its neighbours cannot? For me, Malaysia is the clear winner in marketing, but how many repeat visitors / visits on recommendation does it get? I have many, many friends who visit Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia over and over again. Very few will even visit Malaysia once, and those that will won’t come again. I don’t think the State governments are going to be able to turn that problem around on their own.
It would be interesting to read what LKS blog visitors think the States can do to revitalise their economies independent of Federal largesse. Who is going to recommend that Penang hold a Pride Parade? Even a dancing competition was problematic. Sporting events are problematic because there is very little provision for local training and sports attire is culturally problematic, why put hold an international competition when you handicap your local talent?
Penang could put Sepang and Singapore to shame and hold a gravity grand prix:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szhgTYuHJjc&feature=related
#18 by taiking on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 12:51 pm
Oh dear! Orangrojak are we really dat bad in the eyes of foreigners?
But honestly, the state and condition which our tourist attractions are in, are not something I am terribly proud of. Our streets are not pedestrian friendly, full of potholes and the pavements are slippery when wet (whose stupid idea was it to tile the pavements?). Our drains are smelly and our food outlets are dirty and not hygienic.
The only thing we excel is shopping. No where else in the world can one buy things like “Dato”, university degree, votes (for parliamentary seats or state seats – a hundred dollar and a tin of milo a vote), members of parliament, and many many more. Ask your friends in UK if they are interested to buy say isa, the recently elected umno guy in bagan. They can think about the logistic of packing and transporting him home later.
#19 by katdog on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 1:19 pm
the Bagan Pinang by-election is the clear wake up call to PR supporters. Even without the postal votes, Isa would have won a landslide. And this is in a constituency with 30% non Malays. What happened? Do we blame the Malays for voting in a corrupt UMNO man? We can’t because the results clearly showed that the non-Malays also voted strongly in favour of a corrupt UMNo man.
This is a good slap on the face for narrow minded DAP supporters. Stop blaming the Malays. The non-Malays are the ones guilty of propping up a decadent corrupt regime like UMNO BN. The rich well connected chinese and their ‘underlings’ have been the ones helping to keep UMNO-BN in power. The real Malays NEVER vote for corrupt politicians if they know that person to be corrupt. It is the non-Malays that happily vote for corrupt leaders as long as they are able to get free handouts. So stop whining about Malay ‘advantages’. Your chinese brothers are those guilty of helping UMNO loot the country in exchange for part of the loot. Remember these UMNOputras: Eric Chia, Vincent Tan, Tiong King Sing?
Many say, next GE, we will change the government. Yeah right! The chinese and indian voters are the most fickle and easily bought over by promises of money and development so don’t be surprised to see non-Malays return begging to UMNO-BN for development. Malays (as evidenced in Kelantan) are willing to stick by their principles no matter what and will be the most dependable votes PR will have. That’s why i found it so hillarious that DAP men are constantly screaming about removing PAS from PR. What a joke! Without PAS there is no PR.
#20 by lkt-56 on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 1:33 pm
katdog,
Where do you think such an attitude like yours will get you?
#21 by katdog on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 5:55 pm
It matters not where i will go. What matters is where DAP wants to go.
And it makes me sick everytime i see DAP supporters blame Malays and PAS for all the problems. Where will this kind of attitude get DAP?
#22 by peru on Monday, 12 October 2009 - 9:11 pm
I agree with some of your comments that PR should get rid of PAS. PAS ideology is way off track compared to PKR and DAP. Once PAS is out on their own, PAS can continue banning beer and everything and continue shouting.
I believe DAP and PKR can succeed together, only if they start NOW!
#23 by katdog on Tuesday, 13 October 2009 - 1:15 am
without PAS there is no PR. Kelantan. Terrenganu are PAS strongholds. UMNO has their strongholds in the southern states like Johor and as we have recently seen NS.
Bagan Pinang has clearly shown that, PR will have a tough time cracking UMNO strongholds in the South, on top of that, trying to kick out PAS and getting PKR to take over the PAS votes? Do you think PAS voters in the northern states will just blindly switch over from PAS to PKR, no questions asked?
Without PAS seats from Kelantan,Kedah and Teregganu, (and potentially Perlis) can PR take over the federal government? PR today can’t even take on UMNO in NS, what more UMNO’s backyard of Johor.
Plus, rumours is that PKR Sabah and Sarawak is close to collapse. No Sabah+Sarawak, no fed govt as well.
But here we are already talking of backstabbing each other and kicking out PAS? So sure are we that PKR+DAP has got all the votes neccessary, just throw PAS out when they are no longer needed. When Nik Aziz fought so hard against the elements in PAS that wanted unity government with UMNO? His reward is for his own partners in DAP/PKR to backstab him? These are the principles of the new PR government?
P.S. Don’t forget that PKR finds PAS a more valuable partner than DAP. The PAS vote bank is dependable. DAP on the other hand (contrary to 2008 results) does not have as large a vote bank as you might think and if DAP does not perform, the chinese are likely to return in droves to the BN fold.
#24 by monsterball on Tuesday, 13 October 2009 - 3:31 am
One win by UMNO…in West Malaysia…few MCA balls carriers are showing their apple polishing techniques..and predicting doomsday for PR.
Best is Samy Vellu…claiming MIC swing more than1400 … .out of 1800 Indian votes to UMNO
He spoke out the exact figure too!!
Much more Chinese votes….no MCA guys..to claim…swinging…this Samy is simply the most out-dated low class Indian politician…most thick skinned…..trully out-dated low class politician..one can ever find in Malaysia.
I was hoping Koh Tsu Koon will claim he did the swinging too….but he kept quiet. He is a hypocrite and UMNO balls polisher……….but not so stupid like Samy.
Yes…8 by-elections in West Malaysia.. PR won.. 8-0…and now 8-1…and the ONE…is the sign of how strong UMNO is?
What type of idiotic analysts are these people?
Forget the “1″ won in East Malaysia by UMNO.
We are focusing West Malaysia now.
Go and get any 6 year old child and tell…who is the winner…if the result is 8-1…….in favour of PR?
And Bagan Pinang have a history for winning big .,under Isa……and Isa have been proven giving bribes..to win elections.
UMNO approval to field a corrupted man is actually approving corruptions….and since Isa did such a wonderful job in Negri Sembilan….the show must go on for UMNO….and what a show..UMNO performed.
Before the result..Isa can even predict he will win by at least 5000 votes….and he did!!!
All his runners kept their promises.
God only knows…how many millions are given out to the runners to do their jobs….and some runners must have become instant filthy rich too.
Yes…this is assumptions by me…but you can easily imagine what a proven crook will do …approved by UMNO..to do same thing.
Yes…UMNO won big….and UMNO have outwardly tell to Malaysians…they encourages corruptions…as without that..they are dead
ducks.
Corruption under such conditions is not like a policeman taking a bribe…which is a way of life all over the world.
UMNO is actually telling all Malaysians…be prepared to bribe..to live and succeed.
Malaysians must decide in the 13th GE….their children destiny…to be totally free or stay as slaves to UMNO.
You choose!!
#25 by katdog on Tuesday, 13 October 2009 - 7:07 pm
Monsterball, you should not dismiss Sabah and Sarawak. If BN retains East Malaysia all it needs it just more than 1/3 of the West Malaysia seats to form the government as East Malaysia accounts for 25% of the seats.
So you can have 60% of the West Malaysian seats. BN still will win.
#26 by boh-liao on Tuesday, 13 October 2009 - 7:35 pm
So far, PR only managed to make inroad in ONE by-election, a net gain of 1 seat
The other by-elections were successful retentions of PR seats
No net gain, nothing to shout about
PR must win some state n federal seats in Sabah n Sarawak
Boleh kah
#27 by monsterball on Wednesday, 14 October 2009 - 5:16 am
katdog….I am fully aware of that……but I want readers to know..in West Malaysia…UMNO lost all…and winning one small place….is now making so many predictions..doomsday for PR.
East Malaysians may support UMNO….what can you do?
So it is up to keDAILan…DAP and PAS…to find out…are East Malaysians so corrupted cannot change to think of country ad people?
Are East Malaysians so selfish?
Let PR go and find out…how to win votes with pure truths…and truths always win.
But in politics…there are always someone to spoil the show…and PR do have PAS as a thorn….instead of a flower.
Let Hadi Awang go and think why Bagan Pisang lost to UMNO by such a huge majority.
He wants to play religion and race politics with UMNO? He is out-dated and an idiot.
Back to East Malaysia….I sincerely believe Sarawakians are much more patriotic and will know what to do.
Sabahans are famous to be corrupted. Will they change?
katdog…do not be surprise.in 13th GE..UMNO can win only 3 or 4 States….and be reduced to be a strong opposition …for once.
We want UMNO to taste the medicine they gave us…and yes…lets watch out…how good PR will be.
We are aiming at a Malaysian Malaysia…without stealing from us..as corruptions is a way of life throughout the world. We do not want to be the first…to be corrupt free too…as that word.”corruption”… have double meanings…..all created by UMNO.
#28 by jbozz on Wednesday, 14 October 2009 - 12:29 pm
“how were they supposed to benefit the majority of the people in Bagan Pinang”
You should learn from Iran where a street protester model is shoot dead. Malaysia has not yet reach to that extreme, but it will eventually if people didn’t realize the Dictatorship regime of Hitler, Musollini and Emperor Hirohito is reviving. At first Hitler will sweet talk all the public, after he is in full power he will crushed all the opposition, this is how then Malaysia will go for nuclear power like Iran. The US will come invade us, people will died, childrens and everything, the royal navy will failed badly during war, Indonesia will serve as a base for US airforce to bomb our army camp and destroy our Navy. We will be lack of flying jet to fend the sky because Shukoi jet not yet delivered, the submarine unable to come back to defend the sea because our sea is not deep and we don’t have a pent to maintain it and repair it, it takes more than 8 hours for our Royal Navy to put off a fire, by the time Indonesian drop some bomb to our Royal Navy, it might takes forever for these Royal Malaysian Navy to act.
UMNO will be the first party to resemble Nazi Germany. Although Germany is strong but they purge the Jews. UMNO will it purge non chinese? so vote for UMNO vote for BN and vote for doom.
#29 by jbozz on Wednesday, 14 October 2009 - 12:33 pm
Some reason why younger Malay don’t like PAS, because they too religious extreme.
Don’t be religion slave. All men are created equally.
Why PAS must ban concert? what is there morally wrong for your own right?
It is stupid if we surrender our rights and freedoms to religion. Not saying religion is wrong but it is things we don’t agreed.
#30 by jbozz on Wednesday, 14 October 2009 - 12:39 pm
If religion is so right, why so many divorcee in PAS ruled state? till they have to waste public fund to sponsor for holiday trip to have 2nd opinion.
Religion can’t answer everything. Morally is it right to marry and divorce and marry more than 1 wife? so are you saying it is morally correct? than watching a concert? therefore Religion extreme party might failed in certain advance state or state that the generation want liberties.