I suppose it is not irrational exuberance to say that 58,459 voters of Permatang Pauh will reaffirm forces generated by March 8 political tsunamy leading to “political and economic change and reforms” if change and reforms imply prospects of change of government on Sept 16th.

Such a change of government necessarily implies a successful vote of no confidence on present government.

This is possible if there are sufficient crossovers from BN’s side bridging the 30+ seat difference in the Dewan Rakyat to carry a vote of no confidence on the government.

DSAI said that this could happen on 16th September – 20 days from polling day in Permatang Puah.

He is brave to stake his credibility on this prediction. I don’t really believe it. It could be political brinkmanship and hype on his part.

However I could be proven (pleasantly) wrong. Although it is hard to envisage this happening in a span of 20 days however one never really knows how many deals he has already stitched with disenchanted BN assemblymen in Sabah and Sarawak.

Even in the Peninsular, some disaffected BN parties may cross maybe some from MCA but likely Gerakan. Gerakan national women leader and vice president Tan Lian Hoe already suggested that the party should pull out from BN; another party leader Chan Ko Youn concurred with Tan, urging the Perak delegates to raise the ‘pull out’ agenda at the national party meeting in October for the party leaders to consider the matter; yet another party veteran, Toh Kin Woon, openly supported Anwar to win the by-election : see report filed by Athi Veeranggan | Malaysiakini/ Aug 17, 08 10:01pm.

The fact that Anwar convincingly wins Permatang Puah gives him national and parliamentary platform to invite and receive such cross overs and lead.

On balance of probabilities, it is more likely Anwar – already popular in Permatang Puah – will get even more votes due to sodomy II allegations especially when such allegations are unconvincing and riddled with inconsistencies.

The moment this cross overs and vote of no confidence happen – IF and when it happens – there will be a need for a general election to determine convincingly which coalition commands majority of Dewan Rakyat.

In the interim period between a successful vote of no confidence and the next 14th general election day, the day to day running of government will, by convention, vest in an interim care taker government. By convention, too the care taker government will be formed by Opposition led by Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim since this is the coalition of parties that succesfully moved the vote of no confidence against the government that has lost majority.

The fact that such a vote of no confidence has become successful would already confirm the general momentum of electorate sentiments in support for the Pakatan Rakyat on 8th March still subsist if not with stronger fervour; the further fact that Opposition becomes care taker government for the interim period leading to the 14th General Election also implies that the conduct of the elections will be fair, ensuring, again in general momentum of events that Pakatan Rakyat will win the 14th general election with a clear and convincing majority to form the government…. .

So the statement that 58,459 voters of Permatang Pauh will reaffirm forces generated by March 8 political tsunamy leading to “political and economic change and reforms” [if change and reforms imply prospects of change of government on Sept 16th or perhaps a little later] is broadly correct in the above sense (to the happiness of all detractors of the Barisan Nasional’s rule) though it is still subject to one major caveat.

The caveat is that everything will happen as it should as stated above provided everyone especially the BN abides by constitution and convention. Otherwise any excuse may be cooked up for an Emergency Rule to be imposed, which will be a change of another kind wholly uncontemplated by those euphoric of Anwar’s victory in Permatang Puah…..

Error in 1st para – it should be “…is also not that certain…”