2010 was just for Pak Lah to “buy time” for his tenure amongst those of 1000 Umno division chiefs and other grassroots leaders in favour of Najib to take over immediately.

It has all appearances of win-win between both of them.

For Najib, transition of power begins not in 2010 but effectively immediately. He showed this by breaking protocol to take the rostrum to adress audience after POM’s speech.

‘Power’, which is what politicians fight for is ephemeral, and a function of perception. Najib’s camp gave standing ovation because to them, the transfer of power is as good as done deal once such a time is confirmed. According to them, the surface appurtenances of power still vest with the premier but the baton of real exercise thereof has been pased to the deputy as “PM-elect”. The bureaucracy and hangers on (whether in political or corporate arena) would still recognise the ono numero as nominal head but power imperceptibly will slip to the PM designate as more and more hedge their bets and turn to the number two for decisions.

That is what they think. They may think wrong because a transition of two years is different substantially from two months – and anything can happen in between in light of the altantuya shaariibuu saga that continues, twisting and turning in plot and developments as time passes!

Time has always favoured and been an ally to the number 1. He waited under TDM and secured the plump position whilst the less patient number two challenged and fell on the wayside. It was also the case that TDM expected him to be a temporary caretaker for Najib to take over but today what happens, things have so changed that TDM was even on record for doubting that Najib would take over.

It is true that the PM dismissed suggestions that the allegations faced by his deputy in respect of the altantuya case would not affect “handover” but one must ask in what context he meant this. He was quoted to have said, “I think that is separate. This is a decision at a party level.” One must ask, what is “separate”?

Reading behind the lines, it means to him, there is a definite predetermined time for handover at “party level” but how extraneous developments relating to altantuya shaariibuu case would affect and bear on that equation at party level is “separate”!

So those supporting Pak Lah also gave standing ovation. They were probably thinking what a deft political move to buy time for two years during which there is sufficient time for developments to occur to change the handover equation. Pak Lah has nothing to lose. Bottomline he secure time until 2010 giving him 2 terms which is what he wanted : anthing longer is windfall and bonus.

Najib refered to the president’s position as the position as the PM. He said the premier had a big heart for “it is not easy to give up any position. What more the highest position in the land?”

Precisely for that very reason, no agreement especially relating to power and top position is ever cast in stone that the hand of ambition cannot redraw as against fresh and manifold unforeseeable developments as they occur from trime to time bearing on the power equation.

The audience of 1,000 Umno division chiefs and other grassroots leaders (from two different sides) gave a standing ovation but each side for a different reason based on what they perceived was to their advantage.

That is how a bargain is struck between opposing sides – both sides think they have the better side of it, but often only one side is right about it, and the other side, wrong, and the question is which side is right and which is wrong that only time will tell!

What we have here is two years “extra time”.

So is AAB Forrest Gump or ‘Sifu’ of political craft??? :)

If he doesn’t forge this 18 month transition deal, he will face, come this December, a leadership challenge from Najib, Muhyiddin and Ku Li (combined) but by the deal it will be him and Najib against the rest, much easier to manage……In 2010, it is time for the next election and if the momentum from March 8th 2008 strengthens until then, not only is he out but the whole BN, so he has nothing much to lose in the deal! The only cost is to share “power” which is letting the Deputy heads a few more committees and meet heads of foreign countries as well as plan for GE 13 (that he probably has neither time nor inclination to do himself).

Net net he could get away with the debacles of March 8th political tsunamy blamed on him, the unpopular Petrol Hike and even thwarting the democratic right of UMNO members to change leaders come end of the year….

Of course the marking of transition to 2010 is supposedly to diffuse the disquiet on the ground against him though more likely the intra party leadership will more likely intensify with the deal rather than diffused. This is because the number two knows he has been ‘Badawied’ and yet, for reasons best known to him, could not do much about such a deal foisted upon him. To the incumbent at least he secured his Deputy’s in-principle support not to challenge but to support him till 2010.

It is not given to anyone to peer into the mysteries of the future but risks that can be identified like for example the likely end of year leadership challenge has to be managed by this temporary make shift agreement first. Thereafter leave it to developments as they occur from time to time and see what opportunities and advantages may be garnered to neutralise political rivals further.

In interest of political survival, he has to protect and guard one flank by deal with his deputy to take on attack from the other flank from not just UMNO warlords but also a frontal challenge from Anwar Ibrahim moving his vote of no confidence.