Beware of men in big shoes, red nose and bow ties who aren’t from a circus, they say!

TDM has always claimed his love and undying allegiance and loyalty to his party, UMNO of which he was ex president. So why would he publicly say that the Umno which he professes love are “incapable of reforming themselves without pressures from the electorate” warning that if “the voters back the Barisan Nasional government once again in the coming polls, it would be an endorsement for a coalition “centred on nepotism and corruption” – knowing fully well his statement will receive wide publicity and convince people on the fence to vote against the UMNO led BN and used by the Opposition as clarion call to deprive BN of 2/3 majority? Something here does not jive or compute!

What is his motivation?

One possibility (which probably is the remotest) is that he wants to do something to “clean” up his legacy, which is identified with nepotism, corruption and failed politicians. I say “remotest” because even if there exists an element of such calculation, it must be very marginal consideration for the man is not known to be contrite of mistakes or to be bothered with what others say, which may well extend to what history judges as well.

The other motivation is that if (thanks to TDM’s words of encouragement not to give full support to UMNO/BN), UMNO/BN does badly in this coming election compared to 2004 general election in which BN won 92% of the seats in Parliament – if BN loses to the Opposition many seats in Penang which is the home state of ABB – then will this not tantamount to a big blow to AB’s prestige as chairman of BN and offer the ideal circumstances for AAB to be urged to step down on grounds of leadership failure to pave the way for AB to be pressured by UMNO/BN’s power brokers to step down in place of the ascendancy of TDM’s preferred choice? After all, TDM has made his partiality publicly known and was quoted as saying in press conference, “that was my thinking, since (Abdullah) was older than Najib, he should be PM for one term and then Najib should be able to take over…I know it takes time to implement plans and projects but I think if that is to be used as an excuse to stay in power for 18 years then that will not be very welcome.”

So the second motivation sounds plausible especially the man is also identified with spite for those who spurned him and by extension his pet projects like Proton and scenic crooked bridge….

However it does seem odd to me of how either TDM – or by extension his preferred successor – will eventually still look good and sincere in the eyes of their party members if they are seen to be prepared to encourage support of Opposition to break BN’s stranglehold on 2/3 majority just to meet their private intra-party and personal agendas of accelerating ABB’s exit.

Having said this, I won’t discount that there may well be a third possibility (to explain this rather inconsistent conduct of TDM to try to lessen his own party’s traditional ability to marshal 2/3 majority support) though I am quite unable to see what it is with clarity at this moment.

TDM is strategic thinker, that much we cannot deny him, and he would not do anything without a good reason in service of his objectives, whether or not it is clear to others.

There are 219 seats in the Parliament. To deny the BN 2/3 majority means Opposition has to garner no less than 75 seats. The Opposition currently has only 20 seats — 12 DAP, 6 PAS, 1 Keadilan and 1 Independent who is leaning towards the BN. If one does the mathematical calculations, Opposition has to do three times (3x) better than last time to come near the 2/3. Is that a likely feat?

No doubt, chances are that Opposition esp DAP will make substantial gains, but BN is likely to retain 2/3 majority, and although would do worse than 2004, is however unlikely to do so bad as to justify credible leadership challenge from within UMNO/BN to thwart AAB’s intended 3 terms…..And then what will happen to TDM’s strategy – if indeed what has been speculated was indeed his motivation and strategy to usher the incumbent out of office to make way for his preferred choice? Will the incumbent then launch some spring cleaning immediately after he secured his second mandate (albeit not as convincing as his first)?

This will be interesting to watch. As far as Opposition is concerned, it appears to have everything to gain from TDM’s “help” and nothing much to lose (so forget about the often repeated warning to be beware of bearers of gifts like TDM) unless one thinks (strictly from national interest standpoint), that the successor (endorsed by TDM) will be even worse than the present one….