The country needs an urgent radical reform of the government administration to ensure its stability, integrity and prosperity in the long term.

To vote for real change, one needs to vote Opposition.

With the new mandate, he said, the Barisan Nasional (BN) government helmed by Umno could pursue programmes to upgrade the socio-economic well-being of the Malays///

He spoke as though Malaysia belongs only to Malays.

But the non-Muslim mindset is simple which will show in the elections. Whatever parties contest, they will vote the more pro-Liberal, pro-Secular, anti-Fanatism, anti-Extremism regardless of whatever party contests.

Of course Khir Toyo & Ali Rustam’s extremist policies will not go down well with non-Muslims. Tajol Rosli, Adnan Yaakob, Mohd Hassan will fare better……

If no good choice then spoilt votes will increase or they may not even bother to vote.

The reason: in this country with current 60% population and growing at a faster rate than others, I assume rightly or wrongly, the reality that a Malay/Muslim based political party, whether UMNO or Pas, will lead the show, with Malay political dominance being the main political leitmotif, it being extremely hard for me to conceive DAP led Opposition or a equal partners Opposition will be allowed to come to power and run the country.

In the other situation, I don’t really subscribe to Lim Kam Put’s suggestion that non-Muslims could become the “swing” votes between PAS and UMNO, and that it is equally possible that either party may become more liberal in order to secure their positions because that presupposes that non Malay votes/constitutencies are significant in number and critical factor especially over time whereas it is my expectation that over time with the comparative higher Malay birth rates (not to mention influx of Indonesians) and migration of Non Malays plus the gerrymandering that is going on, non Malay votes/constitutencies will get less and less significant in overall political equation. (Even now how many non Malay seats in Parliament can they get if they all vote for one party instead of being fragmented – maybe 30%? If I were right, then the Malay votes/constitutencies will get more and more important in proportion to the Islamisation theme competed for by the 2 Malay based parties. I don’t think principles of liberal democratic government count that much for the majority group because otherwise PKR would have done much better than with just 1 Federal seat and to have to depend on PAS competing with UMNO for the Malay ground. This would be the same reason making it not a big issue to either UMNO nor PAS in response to the other point you made – ie that “UMNO may compete with PAS to be even more Islamic in order to win back the Malay votes, but what can they do without the 2/3rd majority ? It will be the death knell for the non-Muslim parties in the BN coalition (meaning it will implode).
Rustam Ali of Malaca – and one poster here Shamsul Anuar – made this point that UMNO can run the show without any of the non Malay component parties if push comes to shove and bottom line. Presently it still maintains the facade of ‘ power sharing’ just to give the world the impression that its group is representative of plural Malaysia which is small price, as long as everyone knows who’s boss. They are not worried about implosion as in sense of BN component parties ceasing to be relevant or leaving BN fold due to intense Islamisation. They are only woried of implosion, if it occurs, within UMNO.
, even as I that

Once the competition between UMNO and PAS intensifies it will be the death knell for any non-muslims party in any coalition. In current situation, MCA, Gerakan, MIC are losing non-muslims supports in the BN coalition because UMNO’s religious bigotry, trying to outdo PAS to maintain Malay-muslims supporters base.

To expect UMNO and PAS to become more liberal after receiving swing votes from the non-muslims will be naive, as history has shown that it will be the contrary. Has UMNO become more liberal after 50 years? PAS’s current soft approach is just a tactic to fish for non-muslims votes.

Can MCA/Gerakan/MIC/PPP led the BN coalition? A DAP led or equal partners opposition is not possible this general election but depending on the result DAP may lead the opposition in 2011 or 2012, provided non-muslims did not vote for PAS.

An Opposition led victory is a myth. The other scenario of the Opposition denying the thieves the two-thirds majority is what we should aim for. UMNO may compete with PAS to be even more Islamic in order to win back the Malay votes, but what can they do without the 2/3rds majority ? It will be the death knell for the non-Muslim parties in the BN coalition.

As Limkamput pointed out in one of his comments earlier, the non-Muslims could become the “swing” votes between PAS and UMNO, and that it is equally possible that either party may become more liberal in order to secure their positions.

Lastly, why the comment regarding a PAS-led Opposition ? Can’t it be a DAP led Opposition or a equal partners Opposition ?

If Anwar/PKR did not back DAP years back when it split from BA over PAS’s theocratic policy why would Anwar/PKR back DAP when power is finally attained by and within grasp of PAS led Opposition?

Not backed what do you expect DAP to do? If it sticks to its guns, it will have again to leave to bark as a lone opposition against an Islamofacist government like the way it did in the past against UMNO led BN.

What will happen to UMNO by then in the opposition have to do to win back power principally from Maly votes?

If they are not already incarcerated by PAS govt in the name of the Almighty (since no ISA by then) and if they are afforded democratic leeway to contest the New Opposition PAS led govt, UMNO will probably have to come out with further programs to further compete and outislamise PAS’s theocratic state – which DAP cannot even join or collaborate if that were the reason it was kicked out or had left the new BA PAS led government!

Well the DAP would revert to its previous role as a “barking” opposition except that it is alone barking this time around since UMNO opposition is dedicated to further compete in Islamisation with PAS led/Anwar Govt.

Anwar’s & PAS’s respective gameplans –

1. for time being from position of weakness, Anwar has to basically tap on PAS Malay support & DAP’s Chinese support holding balance between them.

2. Way to do with DAP is to convince DAP that it needs PKR because of reality of Malay political dominance so that DAP has to declare collaboration with PKR by electoral pact if and since it cannot do so with PAS and if and even Anwar does a back to back pact with PAS on the other side.

3. Pursuant to Anwar/DAP pact, let DAP make its bid in Penang (long time ambition of DAP)for control of state govt and as trade off, make a bid for sharing of some DAP’s seats in Perak and elsewhere to gain on its own more seats at DAP’s expense. Here DAP is taking risk in Penang for their Voters may give DAP Parliamentary seats but not necessarily state seats to control state govt. In exchange for something not certain in Penang (wrestling over control of state govt) DAP sacrifices a few seats to Anwar/PKR elsewhere, in process strengthening him/it.

4. Anwar however plays the card of telling non-Malays to win their confidence that he’s against extremist race based NEP and religious extremism. In spite of being against religious extremism theocracy, he inconsistently collaborates with the other side with PAS because he needs them to get top post when new govt formed.

5. Meanwhile PAS for the time being assumes a less fanatical face to ameliorate non Malay concerns. Using Kelantan as show case, it tries to show its religious tolerance. Chinese are a small minority in Malay rural heartland controlled by PAS that it can temporarily afford to give equal treatment to both Muslims and non-Muslims and show greater tolerance. (This is but a small price, temporary at that, to pay to gain the support of the more numerous Chinese in other states who are unhappy with the BN’s racial policies and corruption). It also tries to use Anwar to garner Malay voters antithetical against UMNO but are too moderate to support PAS directly.

6. The pact (Anwar/PAS) is if Opposition wins, PAS will dominate and run the new govt with Anwar as the nominal head. Anwar here rides on a tiger (of Islamofacist party like PAS) just like Lee Kuan Yew initially did on back of Communist/Socialist support to come to power and later see how it could tame it but PAS calculates that it will tame Anwar instead. PAS, once ensconced in seat of power, can discard its liberal pretensions and assert its more Islamic face/agenda to complete the Islamisation of Malaysia from point where UMNO last left off. To buttress its strength it will offer the UMNOputras sharing the dream of an Islamic State to cross over and join the PAS dominated government subject to their toeing PAS’s politics. Anwar will be given the olive branch that he/PKR too would shed some liberal pretension to compromise with PAS’s Islamic agenda in exchange for top seat, a nominal one controlled from behind by PAS, something not a great deal to Anwar since he shared same ideological pinning with Islamic Cause since his ABIM days. This is what Dawsheng probably meant when he commented “Where PAS go PKR will also go but as partners. Where DAP go PKR and PAS can also go but as contenders” unless I may add that DAP relent to play the parallel subordinate second fiddle role as MCA/MIC/Gerakan play in relation to dominat UMNO, beholden to dominant malay/muslim party PAS (for the crumbs of some positions in government) ostensibly to represent non muslims interest in a full fledged Islamic theocratic state. This is provided that DAP shed or tone down its pluralistic agenda and offers no resistance to PAS’s Islamic state and its agenda. It is a condition precedent to DAP to share crumbs of power in a PAS dominated government dedicated to Islam, nominally led by Anwar. With power, PAS could then execute its agenda to change the Federal Constitution presently based on sovereignty of man made laws to one based on God made divine laws (of course with certain concessions to Non Muslim minorities).

This is the likely scenario if for some fortuitous events lead to a PAS led Opposition winning the elections and in position to form government ie if the win and transfer of power by BN were not disrupted and thwarted by any untowward incident parallel to 5/13 to justify why the results of election not being carried out in the name of national interests…..

DAP supporters or not, Dr.Chua is a very good man who’s kind deeds lived in the hearts of many Chinese.

It is most gentlemanly that I propose DAP not to contest in his ex-seat as a goodwill gesture to him. This gentleman move by DAP in just the Labis seat will capture the hearts of the people of Johor and will cause an overwhelming support for DAP elsewhere in Johor, whereby MCA supporters will salute DAP & may even switch to vote DAP. Do it & announce it. Not only Johor, the whole of Malaysia will salute you & give better support.

Take my advice DAP & show the nation that politics is not dirty & greedy but be the first party to go down into history that is a gentleman.

However, many are also upset over the ‘stable’ govt but not providing the best environment for making money.

For sure, a vote for DAP, even if DAP wins as many seats that one can ever dream of, BN will also rule, 99% likely with 2/3 majority, 100% with majority.

So business-wise = Either BN or DAP is OK.

But looking into the other issues happening like the non-muslim corpse snatching, banning lion dance in SMBU4, lock-down on beer ads, Islam Hadhari which indirectly affects non-muslims, Chinese schools, etc etc…… if MCA/Gerakan wins big = allys of UMNO = situation getting worse.

So this time round I expect votes for DAP will increase tremendously.

I predict this time round in GE 2008, this may happen :

1. Uncle Lim will retain Ipoh Timur with bigger majority.
2. Same for Karpal Singh
3. More Parlimentary Seats for DAp – possibly 15-20.
4. Penangnites will still chose Gerakan for State & DAP for Parliment, with an increase of the latter.
5. Big change for Melaka – much more state & parlimentary seats will go to DAP due to Chinese fed-up with Ali Rustam’s closing down pig farms, ban beer ads & too Islamic in all his ways.
6. BN may still lose Kelantan. The people there have deeply rooted into mini-Afghanistan’s taliban rule. Those who oppose have mostly migrated out to KL, JB or elsewhere.
7. Johor may see a breakthru – a first DAP state or parlimentary seat to DAP.
8. Selangor & NS will see more new seats going to DAP.

All these I predict from the support of Malaysian Chinese from:
a) The Sanggang By-Election effect. Higher majority.
b) The Sarawak state elections – DAP won big there. A little known secret why DAP won unexpectedly big there… it is not only about land issues. Remember the Sarawak Tribune which was BANNED by the Federal govt just before the elections? Well, that is a widely read newspaper by the Chinese in Sarawak.!

Care to elaborate??